How the U.S.-China Trade Deal Impacts Your Critical Mineral Sourcing

Article Highlights:

• The October trade agreement between the U.S. and China marked a modest relief of tensions between the world’s largest economies, providing needed relief to many U.S. industries. However, many questions still remain over what happens after this agreement expires in November 2026, and where the ongoing U.S.-China tensions go from here. 
• With China relaxing virtually all export restrictions on the critical minerals it dominates production of, customers of products containing these minerals can now rest assured that they’ll be able to access raw minerals and related products from China. What remains to be seen, however, is what happens to these restrictions in November 2026, after the agreement expires.
• For companies looking to remain resilient, there are a wide range of tasks to pursue now. But they all cascade out from one common theme: identifying links to China in their supply chains, and locating alternate parts and suppliers that don’t pose the same exposure to geopolitical or mineral risks. 

Unpacking the US-China Trade Agreement from October 31^st 

On October 31^st, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met to discuss economic concerns and negotiate a trade agreement between the two countries. As a result of the negotiations, both sides agreed to roll back recently announced trade restrictions. China eased export restrictions on critical minerals, while the U.S. suspended the BIS 50% Rule, among other concessions from both sides. This agreement marked a modest relief of tensions between the world’s largest economies and provided needed relief to many U.S. industries. However, many questions still remain over what happens after this agreement expires in November 2026 and where the ongoing U.S.-China tensions go from here. 

This article unpacks the upshots of the negotiations, what points the nations agreed to, and perhaps most importantly, what the implications are for companies and industries dependent on China’s critical minerals. 

What Are the Key Points of the October U.S.-China Deal?

The full list of agreements is available via fact sheets from the U.S. White House and Chinese MOFCOM, where both governments carefully outlined the full scope of the deal. In addition, official announcements have been published by the Chinese MOFCOM and in the U.S. Federal Register. The main points that each side agreed to are as follows:

China’s Concessions

• Agreed to suspend the global implementation of expansive rare earths-related export controls and begin issuing export licenses for additional rare-earths minerals like gallium, germanium and antimony that were previously restricted. In practice, this suspends all export controls on rare-earth minerals that China had previously restricted. This loosening of restrictions will last until November 27, 2026.
• Agreed to suspend or remove all retaliatory tariff measures announced since March 4, 2025, which covered many U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans and corn.
• Agreed to certain minimum purchases of U.S. soybeans through 2028.
• Will take measures to ensure the resumption of trade from Nexperia’s facilities in China.

The U.S.’s Concessions

• Extended the expiration of certain Section 301 tariff exclusions until November, 10, 2026.
• Agreed to suspend the implementation of the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) 50% Affiliates Rule until November 9, 2026.  
• Will move forward with removing the “fentanyl tariffs” placed on certain Chinese goods, which amounts to a 10% tariff reduction, and will remove the 24% reciprocal tariffs added to Chinese goods.

What This Agreement Mean for Companies Doing Business With China

Companies all over the world that are purchasing goods made with critical minerals can breathe a sigh of relief. But this should also be seen as an impetus for decisive action. With China relaxing virtually all export restrictions on minerals that it dominates the production of, customers of products that contain these minerals can now rest assured that they’ll be able to access raw minerals and related products from China. What remains to be seen, however, is what happens to these restrictions in November of next year, after the agreement expires.

Companies now have one year to prepare for the possibility of restrictions returning—or having different restrictions emerge in November 2026. While restrictions have been temporarily suspended, the two countries continue to coexist in a state of high tension and intense geopolitical competition. One other element of this deal to keep an eye on is the Chinese agreement to purchase certain minimum amounts of U.S. soybeans through 2028. A similar agreement was signed in early 2020, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic challenges and other issues, China failed to meet its purchase agreement levels, a factor likely to be closely monitored by Trump administration officials. If China fails to live up to its end of the purchase agreement, there’s a possibility that the rest of the trade deal could be in jeopardy.

Companies now have one year to prepare for the possibility of restrictions returning—or having different restrictions emerge in November 2026.

Taken together, all these points represent a warning sign to companies with Chinese critical minerals in their supply chains. Despite the recent agreement, businesses should be identifying their vulnerabilities and risks now and starting the process of configuring alternative supply chains. The alternative is facing the prospect of a high-risk, messy disruption within a year. Companies like General Motors have already begun the process of moving their supply chains out of China, with the expectation of having certain parts of their sourcing networks completely independent of China by 2027.

Taken together, all these points represent a warning sign to companies with Chinese critical minerals in their supply chains.

One important note on China’s mineral restrictions is that the full effects of the nation’s export controls were never fully felt because they were scheduled to come into effect in November 2025. Had they been implemented and enforced, those new restrictions would have been the broadest and most wide-reaching export restrictions China had enacted up to this point. It’s possible that companies that were comfortable with the status quo or hadn’t felt any effects from previous export restrictions may have faced disruption by early November if this trade deal had not been made.

This trade agreement also brings significant relief to businesses working with entities that were slated to fall into the scope of the BIS’s new 50% Affiliates Rule. While the BIS 50% Rule had been in discussion since 2024, its interim final rule and immediate effect on September 29, 2025. remained relatively sudden and left myriad companies and their industries shaken and unsure of how to pivot away from soon-to-be-sanctioned entities. The Nexperia crisis, for example, was caused in part by the BIS 50% Rule taking effect. With this new rule now delayed for one year, companies and their sectors have additional time to both screen their partners and digest the rule further in order to determine the actual impacts if and when it is implemented. 

With the new BIS 50% rule now delayed for one year, companies and their sectors have additional time to both screen their partners and digest the rule further in order to determine the actual impacts if and when it is implemented.

Likewise, for companies operating in the U.S., the tariff reductions will likely serve as a welcome easing on import costs. Despite the fact that elevated tariffs have been applied on some goods coming from China for at least nine months, there’s ample evidence, based on recent U.S. trade data, that China remains America’s largest trading partner. This means that the lower tariff rates on China will yield immediate benefits to U.S. businesses.

What Should Businesses Do Now to Strengthen Supply Chain Resilience?

For companies looking to remain resilient, there are a wide range of tasks to pursue. But they all cascade out from one common theme: identifying links to China in their supply chains, and locating alternate parts and suppliers that don’t pose the same exposure to geopolitical or mineral risks. 

For companies looking to main resilient, they must identify links to China in their supply chains and locate alternate parts and suppliers that don’t pose the same exposure to geopolitical or mineral risks.

Businesses can start this process by collecting Full Material Declarations (FMDs) to evaluate the minerals present in their components. Identifying parts with critical minerals is the first step in the process of identifying replacements and alternative sources for these parts. Additionally, companies should map their supply chains as far upstream as possible, which can help gauge their exposure to Chinese components in their sub-tiers. Note that, while many customers may purchase parts from suppliers based outside of China, Z2Data’s relationship data shows that for many parts, companies often have Chinese suppliers at the tier two or tier three levels. 

Lastly, companies can work to configure internal procedures around risk in order to define acceptable geopolitical and mineral risk thresholds. They may then work to identify which parts, products, and commodities exceed the allowable risk thresholds they’ve established. Identifying and defining risk and risk thresholds may sound like a mundane task, but the process will both simplify and justify the work needed to locate alternate suppliers.

Identifying and defining risk and risk thresholds may sound like a mundane task, but the process will both simplify and justify the work needed to locate alternate suppliers.

While the October trade deal between the U.S. and China benefits virtually all global companies and industries in the short term, the importance of proceeding with due diligence, mapping supply chains, and identifying alternate parts and supply chains cannot be overstated. If the restrictions that both sides relaxed in this agreement return in November 2026—or sooner, if tensions surge, relationship volatility returns, or the agreement is breached—there’s abundant potential for severe supply chain challenges for companies that aren’t sufficiently prepared. Organizations can fortify themselves against the resumption of these regulations by carrying out a number of established supply chain risk management (SCRM) measures, including: 

• Collecting FMDs
• Mapping their supply chains
• Identifying alternate parts that aren’t exposed to mineral or geopolitical risk

How Can Z2Data Help?

Z2Data is an industry-leading supply chain risk management software and service provider that helps companies identify and mitigate supply chain risks on a part, supplier, or manufacturing level. 

With Z2Data, companies can take steps to secure their supply chains, including:

• Collect FMDs from suppliers to identify where materials are in their parts
• Find alternative suppliers and crosses for parts
• Launch an organized campaign to start mapping their supply chain

To learn more about how Z2Data can help you get the insights you need on your critical mineral dependencies, schedule a free trial with one of our product experts.