Are Your Critical Suppliers Vaxed and Relaxed?
Let's check in on significant COVID data for four different countries—each of which has critical electronics suppliers within their borders. By gaining a few insights (pun intended) into the COVID cases and vaccination rates for these countries, we can determine how high or low-risk each country is for a potential supply chain disruption.
The countries we are looking at today will be grouped in two sets:
- China and Thailand
- Mexico and Hungary
Each of these four countries houses critical electronics factories for huge suppliers like Intel, Microchip, Foxconn, Celestica, and more.
Let's dive in.
China and Thailand
China and Thailand feature a multitude of electronics suppliers:
The list goes on...
Case rates aren't really worth looking at in China and Thailand. Both countries are either doing a great job at preventing transmission of the virus, or someone forgot how to count.
What is worth looking at is each country's vaccination rates. Only 3.7% of China is estimated to be fully vaccinated while 0.1% of Thailand is fully vaxed.
While these vaccination rates technically outpace the cumulative cases for each country, it's still worth further monitoring. If restrictions are loosened or another heavy wave hits either China or Thailand, the caseload could start to outpace the vaccination rates very quickly.
Is it just me, or do China's cumulative case numbers seem [redacted]?
Mexico and Hungary
Mexico and Hungary have strategic sites for key market players like Foxconn and Jabil. These sites are considered some of the biggest outside of Asia. Both Foxconn and Jabil own sites within the states of Jalisco, Mexico, and Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén County, Hungary.
The number of new COVID cases within these two areas has risen significantly since the beginning of 2021. In fact, both areas have the highest 7-day moving average in cases since the start of the pandemic compared to the same time period in April of 2020.
How will Mexico and Hungary fare in the future?
One good way to estimate this is to look at each country's cumulative case quantity and compare it to the number of people vaccinated.
Hungary's cumulative cases vs people vaccinated give us an optimistic outlook for its future case numbers. As we can see, the number of vaccinations has had a large uptick since the beginning of April and has cut off the trend of the cumulative cases.
As of May 5, Hungary has continued a steady vaccination rate, with over 42% of its population having received at least one dose of the vaccine. The steady, consistent rollout of the vaccine in Hungary is positive news.
Although the number of new cases looked dire in April, it appears as though Hungary should be able to come out on top.
But what about Mexico?
As of April 10th, only 1.6% of Mexico's population was fully vaccinated.
But a sharp influx of vaccinations has occurred over the past couple of weeks. Despite this strong rise in vaccinations, the cumulative caseload continues to trend higher than the number of people vaccinated.
While the upward trend in vaccinations may suggest a decline in new cases, Mexico's outlook is not as strong as Hungary's. As of May 5th, only 10.2% of Mexico's population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and only 6.6% of the population is fully vaccinated.
Yet it's also important to remember these are cumulative cases. Those who were infected in January, February, and March are now likely no longer infected and have some form of immunity. Framed from this perspective, around 1 million Mexican citizens have been vaccinated since March 2021, while around 250,000 citizens have tested positive for COVID in that time. This perspective offers much more optimism for Mexico.
The rollout of Mexico's vaccine might have been slower than anticipated, but there is an additional silver lining: Mexico has enough vaccinations to cover 129.1% of its population. In time, Mexico's outlook should improve.
Here's a quick rundown of each country in this article and the potential risk it has for a COVID-related disruption. The risk for disruption scale is as follows:
- Vaxed and Relaxed (low risk)
- Almost Vaxed and Relaxed (medium-low risk)
- Not Vaxed and Relaxed (medium-high risk)
China: Almost Vaxed and Relaxed
- If their current case data is to be trusted, then China is relatively low risk—but keep an eye on their vaccination rates. If their vaccination rates don't increase more, they could be upgraded to a higher risk.
Thailand: Not Vaxed and Relaxed
- Thailand has had difficulty securing enough vaccinations for its citizens. There is some potential for disruptive outbreaks in the future. While Thailand could be a medium risk, the country's demonstrated ability to keep outbreaks at bay earns it the hybridized low-to-medium risk moniker attached to its not 'vaxed and relaxed' rating.
Mexico: Not Vaxed and Relaxed
- Mexico has had difficulty with recent outbreaks and has a low vaccination rate compared to other countries. The only factor preventing Mexico from being upgraded to a high risk is that the country has more than enough vaccines for its population.
Hungary: Vaxed and Relaxed
- Nearly half of Hungary has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and the country is starting to open up for immunized citizens. Count Hungary as low risk, vaxed, and relaxed.